Hot Paper - China macroeconomic report 2021: China's macroeconomy marches towards normalisation

China macroeconomic report 2021: China's macroeconomy marches towards normalisation

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Макроэкономический отчет Китая за 2021 год: макроэкономика Китая движется к нормализации

Xiaoguang Liu 刘晓光 ¹, Yuanchun Liu 刘元春 ², Yan Yan 闫衍 ³

¹ National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
中国北京中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院
² School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
中国北京中国人民大学经济学院
³ China Chengxin International Credit Rating Company Limited (CCXI), Beijing, China
中国北京中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司

https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2021.2005281

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20954816.2021.2005281

Economic and Political Studies, 27 December 2021

Abstract

In the year 2021, China's economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation. This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China,s macroeconomic normalisation, the internal and external pressure it faces, and the supporting policies.

Due to the economic recovery and the base effect, China's real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0% in 2021, and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3% in Q1 to 5.0% in Q4, showing a declining trend. Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts, this report puts forward some policy suggestions.

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