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China macroeconomic report 2021: China's macroeconomy marches towards normalisation
2021年中国宏观经济报告:中国宏观经济走向正常化
中国のマクロ経済レポート2021:中国のマクロ経済は正常化に向かって進んでいます
중국 거시경제 보고서 2021: 중국의 거시경제가 정상화를 향해 나아가다
Informe macroeconómico de China 2021: La macroeconomía de China avanza hacia la normalización
Rapport macroéconomique de la Chine 2021 : la macroéconomie chinoise se dirige vers la normalisation
Макроэкономический отчет Китая за 2021 год: макроэкономика Китая движется к нормализации
Xiaoguang Liu 刘晓光 ¹, Yuanchun Liu 刘元春 ², Yan Yan 闫衍 ³
¹ National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
中国 北京 中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院
² School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
中国 北京 中国人民大学经济学院
³ China Chengxin International Credit Rating Company Limited (CCXI), Beijing, China
中国 北京 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司
Economic and Political Studies, 27 December 2021
Abstract

In the year 2021, China's economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation. This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China,s macroeconomic normalisation, the internal and external pressure it faces, and the supporting policies.

Due to the economic recovery and the base effect, China's real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0% in 2021, and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3% in Q1 to 5.0% in Q4, showing a declining trend. Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts, this report puts forward some policy suggestions.
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